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Bahamas Petroleum’s race against time (BPC)

The clock is ticking at Bahamas Petroleum (LSE:BPC). 11 October 2019. That is the date at which Bahamas will need to demonstrate financial capacity in order to fulfil the company’s rig contract. If they don’t, then Bahamas Petroleum won’t be drilling in H1 2020.

Luckily, the company’s shareholders approved the authority to allot more shares. Unfortunately for existing shareholders, the amount that which they would need to raise (assuming they fund it with a placing) will surely leave a dent in the stock price and masses more shares being issued.

From the company’s ‘Progress towards Commencement of Exploration Drilling
and Notice of Annual General Meeting’ RNS:

“Revised estimate of initial exploration well cost down to between US$25 – US$30 million (or <US$50 million for a concurrent two-well campaign if funding permits)

Conditional agreement for a convertible loan investment of £10.25 million, approximately half the anticipated cost of a single well”

The company has laid the facts bare here. It needs £10.08m at today’s spot rate, in order to get the minimum of $25m the board says they believe they need, if they are to drill one will.

At a current market cap of £33m it’s a big ask. It’s a wildcat drill, so institutional involvement is, at least in my opinion, unlikely. It’s a roll of the dice where the odds are increasingly stacked against the chances of success.

So, who is going to fund this thing? Private investors? Probably not at the current valuation. If I were taking this placing I’d want 1.5p as an absolute maximum, and even then post-money it would leave a stretched valuation of £35m (assuming they raise £10m @ 1.5p).

With the price now approaching 2p, it’s a tough ask.

Farm-in

But a placing is not the only option. The company is still looking to receive a farm-in, and these discussions are on-going. How serious these discussions are is anybody’s guess, but if the company is going to receive one – they really need it soon. As in, next week.

The company has been trying to farm-out for years now, and the only company that was ever interested paid $1m in fees for exclusivity then decided to walk away. That suggests that the quality of the asset is just not that good. But crazy things happen on AIM – we’ll see!

If the company does achieve this, then this would be tremendous for the company. The clock is ticking, and if there was ever a time for management to stand up and be counted – now is that time.

Potential upside

If this drill does go ahead, then it will generate a lot of excitement and there would certainly be upside potential in the stock price. Fully funded drills always generate speculation and anticipation, because a drill can materially increase a company’s prospects and bag the share price, sometimes many times over.

However they fund it, whether via a placing, a farm-in, or both – if the drill goes ahead then I would be looking to take a long position at some point. As of now, I’m currently short.

Valuethemarkets.com and Dynamic Investor Relations Ltd are not responsible for the content or accuracy of this article.  News and research are not recommendations to deal, and investments may fall in value so that you could lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

  • Michael Taylor currently holds a position or positions in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the piece.
  • Michael Taylor has not been paid to produce this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.
  • Dynamic Investor Relations Ltd, the owner of ValueTheMarkets.com, has not been paid for the production of this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.

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