Cocoa Surplus Predicted for 2024-25 Season

By Patricia Miller


Learn why cocoa surplus forecasts and price fluctuations matter for retail investors navigating commodity markets.

cocoa powder in a brown ceramic bowl, raw cocoa beans in the pee.
Cocoa Powder

What You Need To Know

According to a Bloomberg article, cocoa shortages are coming to an end and the cocoa price should calm. Marex Group, a UK-based financial services company specializing in commodities, predicts a surplus in cocoa production exceeding demand for the 2024-25 season, ending three consecutive deficit seasons.

In response to supply shortages, cocoa futures prices in New York have more than doubled in the past year.

Improved weather in West Africa is expected to boost next season's cocoa output. Prices have dropped over 30% from peak levels in April but remain significantly higher than the previous year.

Despite the surplus, weak cocoa demand is forecasted and high prices may affect consumption adversely in the coming months according to Marex expert Jonathan Parkman.

Sign up for Investing Intel Newsletter

Why This Is Important for Retail Investors

  1. Impact on Portfolio: Cocoa prices influence costs for chocolate companies like Hershey and Nestlé. Therefore, rising cocoa prices may lead to higher consumer prices or reduced profit margins, affecting stock performance. Retail investors holding cocoa-related investments may see fluctuations in their portfolio value due to cocoa price changes. Traders can anticipate stock movements and adjust their portfolios based on cocoa price trends.

  2. Market Trends: Understanding cocoa market dynamics can provide insights into broader commodity market trends that may influence investment decisions. For instance, Changes in cocoa prices can signal weather issues or political instability in major cocoa-producing countries. These factors can affect other commodities and markets, providing a broader economic understanding.

  3. Profit Opportunities: Changes in cocoa prices can create trading opportunities for retail investors looking to capitalize on price movements.

  4. Risk Management: Knowledge of cocoa supply and demand fundamentals can help retail investors manage risks associated with commodity investments.

  5. Economic Indicators: Cocoa market developments can serve as indicators of global economic factors, providing retail investors with macroeconomic insights for their investment strategies.

  6. Commodity Trading: Cocoa is traded on futures markets and retail traders can directly trade cocoa futures or options. Tracking cocoa prices helps traders make informed decisions about buying or selling contracts.

Read What Others Are Saying

Bloomberg: Cocoa's Extreme Shortage Is Finally Set to End, Marex Says

Sign up for Investing Intel Newsletter

Explore more on these topics:



This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.

Patricia Miller does not hold any position in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the above article.

Patricia Miller has not been paid to produce this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.

Digitonic Ltd, the owner of, does not hold a position or positions in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the above article.

Digitonic Ltd, the owner of, has not been paid for the production of this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.

Sign up for Investing Intel Newsletter