CVR Energy Stock (CVI): Jumps on Crack Spread Strength, Analysts Still Bearish

By Patricia Miller

Sep 10, 2025

2 min read

CVR Energy surged 7% as refining margins improved, but Wall Street warns of downside with most targets well below current levels.

#CVR Energy Latest

CVR Energy (CVI) jumped more than 7% yesterday to around $33 as a widening crack spread lifted refining stocks across the sector.

A crack spread is the difference between the price of crude oil and the combined value of the refined products (like gasoline, diesel, or jet fuel) that can be made from it. It’s basically a proxy for refinery profit margins — if the value of products rises faster than crude oil costs, crack spreads widen, and refiners make more money.

The move reflects improving refining margins amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Despite the momentum, Wall Street remains cautious—most analysts maintain sell-leaning ratings with price targets clustered between $19 and $27 on Bloomberg.

CVR reported a Q2 2025 net loss of $114 million (adjusted loss $0.23 per share) with adjusted EBITDA of $99 million. Projections still point to a potential return to sustained profitability by 2026. Carl Icahn’s majority stake continues to bolster investor sentiment.

#What Investors Need to Know About CVR Energy

  • Analysts are skeptical, rating it from moderate to strong sell.

  • Target prices indicate bearish sentiment.

  • Despite a reported loss in Q2, forecasts suggest a return to profit by 2026.

#CVR Energy At A Glance

CVR Energy operates in refining and marketing (petroleum products) and renewable fuels, with additional exposure to nitrogen fertilizer via its stake in CVR Partners. Its refinery operations are highly sensitive to crack spreads and RFS compliance costs.

#Competitive Landscape

Key peers include Valero Energy, Marathon Petroleum, and Phillips 66—all exposed to crude price volatility, regulatory shifts, and regional crack-spread dynamics.

#Near-Term Catalysts and Risks

In the near term, CVR Energy faces catalysts in potential improvements in refining margins driven by market conditions. However, risks loom from bearish analyst sentiment affecting stock performance and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty that could impact operational metrics. Investors should be vigilant about these factors as they navigate their positions.

#Trading CVI Stock

Weigh the recent technical strength against a bearish Street outlook and near-term earnings pressure. For active traders, volatility around crack spreads and RFS headlines can create opportunities; longer-term investors should anchor on margin trends, capital allocation, and progress toward 2026 profitability targets.

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Important Notice And Disclaimer

This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.