Gold Eyes $3,700 as Crises Keep Investors Cautious

By Kirsteen Mackay

Jun 18, 2025

3 min read

Gold is up 30% this year, driven by global chaos, central bank buying, and investor demand. Is it too late to get in?

#Gold Price Latest

Gold prices are up nearly 30% this year, supported by global macro uncertainty, growing institutional demand, and a shift in central bank reserves. If you do not have portfolio exposure yet, there is still time to evaluate gold’s role as a defensive and growth-oriented asset.

GOLDS Comdty (GOLD SPOT $_OZ)  D 2025-06-18 15-04-41

#Why Gold Is Gaining

In April the gold price briefly spiked above $3,500 an ounce, while it has since pulled back, it has remained elevated and Goldman Sachs expects gold to reach $3,700 by end of 2025, up from $3,220 in mid-May, supported by sustained inflows and a weak real yield environment.

Several tailwinds are contributing to gold’s strength in 2024.

  • Central banks purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold in 2024, one of the highest official sector accumulation periods in recent history

  • Investment demand has grown sharply, with gold ETFs reporting a 170% year-over-year increase in Q1 inflows

  • Macroeconomic uncertainty, ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and softening trade dynamics have reinforced gold’s appeal as a store of value

  • Real interest rates remain low by historical standards, making non-yielding assets like gold more competitive than bonds

Goldman Sachs has also projected that if recession risks increase in the United States, gold could potentially reach $4,800 by mid-2026. While forecasts are not guarantees, institutional sentiment reflects growing conviction in gold’s upside.

#What Retail Investors Should Consider

For retail investors looking to diversify or reduce portfolio volatility, gold offers potential as both a defensive hedge and a source of returns. A typical allocation falls in the 5% to 10% range within a balanced portfolio.

ETFs such as GLD and IAU provide cost-effective exposure with daily liquidity, making them a practical choice for most investors. For those with a tactical approach, price pullbacks toward the $3,300 to $3,200 range may offer more attractive entry points.

In the near term, Federal Reserve policy decisions and geopolitical developments remain key catalysts. Unlike past cycles, gold’s price is now being driven more by investment demand, particularly through ETFs, than by traditional uses like jewelry or industrial applications. This shift means investor sentiment and fund flows are playing a larger role in setting the market tone.

For more info see our investing data story: Gold Price Forecast 2025 and Ways to Invest.

#Central Bank and Institutional Support

Central banks have been steadily increasing their gold reserves as a strategic diversification measure. Official sector holdings reached nearly 36,000 tonnes in 2024, nearing a six-decade high. This trend reflects a broader move away from U.S. dollar dependence and toward tangible, reserve-backed stability.

In addition, ETF flows remain strong. The World Gold Council reported that Q1 2025 marked the strongest start for total demand since 2016. This is occurring alongside only a modest rise in global supply, which remains tight in the context of rising investment demand.

#Risks and Key Watchpoints

While the case for gold remains strong, several factors could impact its near-term trajectory

  • If interest rate cuts do not materialize, gold could lose momentum.

  • ETF redemptions or profit-taking could create temporary price weakness.

  • Calmer geopolitical or macroeconomic conditions may reduce safe-haven demand.

These risks highlight the importance of managing exposure size, monitoring market signals, and aligning gold allocations with broader investment goals.

#Quick Reference for Gold Exposure

Is gold still considered an inflation hedge?

Gold tends to perform well when real interest rates are low or when inflation exceeds expectations, particularly if central banks are slow to respond.

Why are central banks increasing gold reserves?

To diversify away from dollar-based assets and reduce vulnerability to sanctions or geopolitical instability.

What is the current primary driver of gold prices?

Both geopolitical tension and real interest rate dynamics are influencing demand, but official sector buying and ETF flows are exerting an increasing influence on prices.

#Positioning for Resilience with Gold

With rising demand from central banks and investors alike, limited new supply, and a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, gold may be well-positioned to serve as both a risk management tool and a performance contributor within a balanced portfolio. Retail investors seeking stability, liquidity, and non-correlated exposure may want to review gold’s potential role now, rather than later.

Could This Be the Next Chapter in Canada’s Gold Revival?

Just as gold has surged to record highs in 2025, a new gold project is taking shape in central Newfoundland, right next door to the Valentine Mine, which is set to become Canada’s largest gold mine once construction is complete.

With permits secured and drilling underway, this early-stage explorer is targeting structures in the same mineral-rich corridor. While it's early days, the location offers geological context, infrastructure advantages, and recent drill results that are drawing interest.

As gold continues to attract investor attention, some are watching to see how nearby exploration stories unfold.

Curious about this developing opportunity? Explore the story.

Important Notice And Disclaimer

This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.