#What are the chances of Bitcoin outperforming gold by 2026?
Currently, Bitcoin holds a 59% probability of outperforming gold by 2026 according to Polymarket. This statistic highlights a shift in trader confidence regarding Bitcoin's performance in the near future. Polymarket operates as a blockchain-based prediction market where users can speculate on the outcomes of significant real-world events.
In the context of market activity, Bitcoin recently surpassed the $90,000 mark, which has contributed to raising these odds. However, the cryptocurrency ended 2025 with a decline of about 6%. In stark contrast, gold saw a remarkable increase of over 65%, cementing its position as a leading asset for the year, as noted on TradingView.
Bitcoin's trajectory included intense fluctuations; it reached a peak of approximately $126,000 in early October. Following this peak, Bitcoin experienced a pullback due to a lack of new market catalysts and inconsistent demand, resulting in a significant downturn as the year came to a close.
#What factors influence Bitcoin's performance?
The rise in prediction market odds seems to indicate a growing conviction among traders that Bitcoin may yield better returns compared to gold in the coming year. That said, expectations for the cryptocurrency's near-term future are becoming more cautious among some market analysts. For instance, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity Investments posits that Bitcoin might have completed its bullish phase associated with its halving cycle, suggesting a potential transition into a consolidation phase in 2026.
He expresses that Bitcoin’s prices might stabilize within the $65,000 to $70,000 range, while still offering the prospect for long-term gains. Such insights are crucial for investors as they navigate the complexities of cryptocurrency investments, keeping a keen eye on market trends and the evolving financial landscape.