Trump's recent changes in US-Iran negotiations have shifted the landscape significantly. The removal of demands regarding ballistic missiles and proxies has narrowed the focus to nuclear issues and the security of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the negotiations for a permanent peace deal remain challenging, with the latest odds dropping dramatically. As of now, the likelihood of achieving a US-Iran peace deal by April 22, 2026, stands at an alarming 0.1%, down from 1% the previous day. For traders, these numbers indicate a waning sense of optimism regarding a breakthrough in the near term.
In addition, expectations for Trump to announce the end of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, have also faltered, now sitting at 75.5%, compared to 82% just 24 hours before. An April 30, 2026, peace deal is now seen as having a mere 15.5% chance of success. The market appears to be increasingly skeptical, responding to a notable shift in trader sentiment.
Traders note a critical change in the term structure of proposed deals. The peace agreement expected by May 31, 2026, now trades at a 40% chance of success, down from 52% the day before, indicating a growing gap of uncertainty between expected outcomes for late April and May. The trading volume shows $433,823 in USDC, with resistance to price swings highlighted by the need for over $11,000 to alter the odds by 5 points.
The shift in focus, with missile and proxy issues off the table, may simplify negotiations but also puts further pressure on the remaining topics, particularly the nuclear question. A YES share for the April 30 deal, priced at 16¢, could yield a $1 return if successful, representing a significant gamble on potential diplomatic progress in the coming weeks.
Investors and observers alike should monitor any communications from Trump, especially on platforms like Truth Social, as well as statements from Iranian officials or intermediaries. External factors such as regional geopolitical shifts or economic consequences stemming from the blockade could further influence the dynamics in negotiations.