A senior Iranian cleric has called on US President Donald Trump to apologize for the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. In response, the US-Iran peace deal market for April 30 has seen a significant decline, dropping from a 20% likelihood of success to just 6% in the past day.
Despite this vociferous demand, the odds regarding the potential collapse of the Iranian regime by May 31 remain unchanged at 4.1%. Traders appear to view these developments as mere rhetoric, lacking immediate impact. The peace deal market’s sensitivity has been observed with more pronounced fluctuations, particularly surrounding ceasefire negotiations.
As of now, the odds for a peace deal by May 31 stand at 28.5%, a sharp decrease from 44% just 24 hours earlier. Interestingly, the trading term structure indicates a substantial increase in expectations for a catalyst between the April and May timelines, with a notable 22-point jump. Furthermore, June 30 is showing enhanced confidence, reflecting a 45% likelihood of breakthrough by that date.
Current trading activity in peace deal markets is robust, with a volume of $852,860 recorded in USDC. Notably, it takes approximately $30,914 to move the April 30 market by 5 points, indicating a solid order book.
While the cleric’s rhetoric continues Iran’s longstanding antagonism towards Israel, this is not new information in the regional context, which explains why odds on regime stability have remained relatively stable. The immediate focus is on potential mediation efforts by Pakistan, alongside any developments from US and Iranian officials concerning the extension or conclusion of ongoing ceasefire talks. Any forthcoming statements in this regard could trigger a sharp shift in peace deal odds.