High-intensity combat continues in Ukraine, casting doubt on the feasibility of a ceasefire by June 30, 2026. Recent indicators suggest virtually no chance of such an agreement. Currently, the likelihood of a ceasefire by April 30, 2026, has substantially declined to 1%, a slight decrease from 2% just a week ago.
As Russian forces make gains and Ukrainian counteroffensives persist, the chances of a ceasefire have diminished. The market for a ceasefire by April 30 remains stagnant at 1%, indicating that traders perceive ongoing military actions as a clear bearish signal for negotiations.
When examining the June 30 market, the probability is slightly more optimistic at 8%. However, this increase is minimal and reflects overall skepticism. The contrast between the April and June figures illustrates that traders largely foresee a lack of resolution in the short term, with only a small improvement anticipated in the coming months.
Interestingly, the trading volume in these markets is low. For the April 30 market, only $995 has been traded in USDC, indicating limited investor interest. The June 30 market is somewhat more active, with daily trades of $3,672. Nonetheless, liquidity remains a significant concern.
A YES share for the April ceasefire is priced at just 1 cent, which implies a potential return of 100 times the investment. However, the lack of buying interest suggests a lack of confidence among traders. Conversely, the June market is more favorable for traders willing to take risks, with YES shares valued at 8 cents, hinting that some are still hopeful for a shift in circumstances.
Key factors to monitor include any unexpected joint announcements from leaders like Putin and Zelenskyy or potential mediation efforts from major players such as the U.S. or China. Without these developments, ceasefire probabilities are likely to remain stagnant.