Why are miners offloading Bitcoin now? In the first quarter of 2026, miners sold over 32,000 BTC, breaking the previous record of 20,000 BTC set in the second quarter of 2022. This wave of selling is creating considerable supply pressure, occurring alongside Bitcoin's all-time high market confidence of 3% as of March 31, 2026.
Looking ahead, the market shows increased optimism for the upcoming months. By June 30, the Bitcoin market confidence rises to 3.4%. As we approach September 30, this figure escalates to 9.5%, and by December 31, it reaches 17.5%. Notably, there is a significant term structure shift between September 30 and December 31, indicating that traders are anticipating a specific event or catalyst later in the year that may impact market conditions.
Despite the increased selling pressure from miners, predictions for Bitcoin's price on April 15 maintain a 100% confidence level. This suggests that traders believe the fundamentals of Bitcoin remain solid. In the past 24 hours, trading volume has been recorded at $704 in USDC, indicating a moderate depth in liquidity. The recent fluctuation in prices shows that moving prices by just 5 points requires $1,574 for June and $3,718 for September, which indicates that even small trades can have a notable impact due to a thin liquidity environment.
Although miners' sell-off exerts near-term pressure on Bitcoin’s prices, the amount sold remains below 1% of the spot volume, suggesting that the long-term effects could be limited. A YES share at 3¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches new heights by June 30, representing a potential 33-fold return. Currently, traders seem to assign a low probability to a rapid rebound unless supported by catalysts such as ETF inflows or regulatory changes.
Investors should closely monitor communications from the Federal Reserve as well as fluctuations in energy costs, as both factors could significantly influence miners' profitability and subsequently alter market dynamics. Understanding these elements can provide insights into potential changes in selling pressure and overall market behavior.