The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has paused its operations for the next two weeks following a recent ceasefire announcement between the U.S. and Iran.
This temporary halt aligns with significant shifts in market sentiment, as the forecast for a ceasefire by April 15 now indicates a 99.6% probability—up from just 14% a day earlier. A remarkable surge of 24 points occurred overnight, propelling the likelihood from 67% to 90% almost instantaneously. Investors have fully priced the April 15 term for a ceasefire. Additionally, the market expectation for the April 30 term has escalated to 99.5%, rising from 36% within the last week. Expectations for longer-term terms extending to June 30 and December 31 also sit at 99.6%, hinting at robust confidence that the ceasefire will remain intact.
Liquidity further underscores this trend: over $4.54 million in USDC has traded in the past 24 hours. The current threshold to move the April 15 market by 5 points is set at $246,725, revealing considerable positioning. In contrast, just $42,162 is required to shift the longer-term June 30 market by the same amount, indicating stronger short-term interests.
This pause by the militia represents a tangible move towards de-escalation and suggests Iran's serious commitment to negotiations. The involvement of President Trump, alongside intermediaries such as Oman and Qatar, has likely stabilized the odds in the market, limiting potential upside for those betting on a resounding YES.
Meanwhile, predictions surrounding the potential fall of the Iranian regime have dropped to 8.5% likelihood from 12% one day ago. Market interpretations of the ceasefire imply that the regime is sufficiently stable to negotiate, thus diminishing the likelihood of a collapse by June 30. Currently at 8.5 cents, a YES share would yield a payout of 11.76 times if a regime change were to transpire, although the market treats this scenario as unlikely.
Investors should remain vigilant for any shifts in rhetoric from Trump or CENTCOM, as the next significant indicators will come from statements made by intermediaries or formal announcements detailing extended ceasefire conditions.