As of January 2026, China’s nuclear arsenal comprises approximately 620 warheads, marking a notable increase from the 600 reported in early 2025. This growth establishes China as the leader in nuclear expansion among the nine nations that possess nuclear weapons.
What insights does the SIPRI report provide?
The SIPRI Yearbook 2026, released in June, reveals that China's nuclear growth can be divided into two main areas: deployed warheads and operational forces. The number of deployed warheads has increased to around 34, a rise from 24 the previous year. Furthermore, the quantity of stored warheads has also grown, rising from 576 to 586.
The report highlights that China’s modernization efforts are significant not only in terms of quantity. The construction of new intercontinental ballistic missile silo fields in various desert and mountainous regions of the country demonstrates the strategic expansion of its nuclear capabilities. Hundreds of missiles are currently being installed in these newly built facilities, outpacing all other nuclear nations in the process.
What is the global context for nuclear disarmament?
Currently, the total number of nuclear warheads across all nine nuclear-armed states is approximately 12,187. SIPRI's findings indicate a worrying trend where major nuclear powers seem to be stepping away from their disarmament commitments. The conclusion of the New START treaty, the last standing nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia, signifies a crucial shift in international nuclear policy.
The New START treaty has served as a fundamental element of global nonproliferation efforts for more than a decade. Its expiration removes the important checks that have historically restrained the two largest nuclear arsenals. Unlike the United States and Russia, China has not participated in any bilateral arms control treaties, which places its nuclear expansion in an unregulated environment without international pressure to limit or reduce its stockpile.
For retail investors, understanding these geopolitical dynamics is vital as they can influence global markets and investment strategies.