#Why Are Combo Bets Gaining Popularity in Prediction Markets?
Combo bets have recently gained traction in prediction markets, and their excitement resonates with bettors similar to that found in traditional sportsbooks. Polymarket introduced its Combos feature in early June, allowing users to bundle multiple prediction outcomes into a single bet. This means that a bettor’s success hinges on all selected outcomes hitting. Following suit, Kalshi launched a comparable feature and saw extensive engagement with over $100 million in volume within just a week of its launch.
#How Do Combo Bets Function?
The mechanics behind combo bets are straightforward yet crucial for understanding their impact. When a bettor combines multiple outcomes, the probability of winning decreases significantly. For instance, if you have three outcomes, each at a 50% probability, the combined likelihood drops to just 12.5%. Consequently, payouts are adjusted in accordance with this lower probability, which ultimately demonstrates the inherent risk involved.
Polymarket employs a request-for-quote model to price these combo bets. This model means that prices for each combination are quoted individually by market makers rather than relying on a standard order book. The result is an environment where sophisticated traders quote prices specifically tailored for retail users, creating an exciting but potentially risky scenario for inexperienced bettors.
#What Do the Numbers Indicate for Retail Investors?
Investors using retail prediction markets experienced a disheartening median return of -8% between mid-2025 and March 2026, which is notably worse than the -5% median return provided by traditional sportsbooks during similar timeframes. The challenge worsens with each additional leg in a multi-leg bet because the house edge increases. When making a three-leg combo bet, the market maker not only captures margins from each individual aspect of the bet but also compounds those edges, resulting in larger expected losses for those placing the bets.
#How is the Upcoming World Cup Influencing Prediction Market Trends?
The 2026 World Cup has acted as a significant catalyst for increasing the adoption of prediction markets. During the tournament, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, along with their integrations with Robinhood, reached record engagement levels. This event also brought in new demographics, notably increasing female participation, showcasing a shift in an industry that has often leaned heavily towards male users.
Throughout the 2025-2026 period, total volumes on prediction market platforms soared to tens of billions. The integration with Robinhood has played a crucial role in helping push prediction markets into the mainstream.
#What’s Next for Prediction Markets?
As of July 2026, Polymarket's planned POLY token has not yet been released, and the accompanying Combos feature did not see the introduction of any new native tokens. Retail investors should keep a close eye on developments in this rapidly evolving space, particularly as innovative features like combo bets become more commonplace and accessible.