Forecasting a Federal Reserve Rate Cut: Insights and Implications for Investors

By Patricia Miller

Dec 10, 2025

1 min read

Polymarket indicates a 97% chance of a 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut, with strong consensus before the FOMC decision.

#What are the Predictions for the Federal Reserve Rate Cut?

Polymarket users currently project a 97% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis points reduction in interest rates. With the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, set to make its decision in under three hours, the anticipation for this quarter-point cut is widespread among market participants.

The data from the forecasting platform reflects a strong consensus among users, indicating that a quarter-point reduction is highly expected. In addition to the insights from Polymarket, the CME FedWatch data corroborate this sentiment, presenting about a 90% probability for a rate cut. This means there is only slightly more than a 10% chance that the Federal Reserve will choose to maintain current rates today.

Understanding these forecasts is important for investors as interest rate changes can significantly impact market conditions, influencing everything from borrowing costs to investment returns. Keeping an eye on such developments can provide a strategic advantage for investors looking to navigate these economic waters effectively.

Important Notice And Disclaimer

This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.