Trump’s current tariff policies are shifting market expectations regarding his visit to China. The likelihood of Trump visiting China by May 31 is now at 76%, down from 88% just a week ago. The previous April 30 contract seems virtually irrelevant with a minimal probability of 0.1%.
The increase in the May 31 market, reflecting a jump of 76 points since April, signals that traders might be anticipating a potential catalyst by mid-May. Meanwhile, the June 30 odds remain higher at 84.5%, indicating that there is still some expectation for a future diplomatic meeting, but traders are not optimistic about it happening soon.
In the last 24 hours, the trading volume for USDC reached $54,216, and the most activity was recorded for the May 31 contract. Notably, there was a 3-point market spike at midnight, likely due to a single large order. It is important to note that moving the market by five percentage points requires notable capital; costs range between $4,967 and $7,681. This suggests the order book possesses some depth, yet it remains susceptible to significant trading actions.
The decline in odds aligns with the current trade stance of the administration, complicating the scheduling of diplomatic engagements. A 76¢ YES bet necessitates a belief in the visit occurring within weeks despite existing tensions, promising a return of 1.32 times the investment. The key factor that could alter this trend is an official announcement from either the White House or the Chinese Foreign Ministry, confirming specific travel dates.
Investors should keep an eye on upcoming press briefings from Karoline Leavitt or any updates from the U.S. State Department regarding Trump’s travel plans. A confirmed itinerary to China would significantly influence market dynamics.