Impact of US-Iran Conflict Resolution on Gas Prices and Crude Oil Market Predictions

By Patricia Miller

Apr 20, 2026

2 min read

Trump suggests gas prices may decrease if the Iran conflict eases, affecting crude oil market predictions as tensions unfold.

What will happen to gas prices if the conflict with Iran resolves? President Trump suggests a decrease in gas prices is possible if tensions with Iran ease. This development has implications for the Polymarket crude oil trading platform, which is currently tracking expectations for crude oil prices potentially reaching $90 by June 2023. If hostilities abate, predictions for higher oil prices may decrease, reflecting a bearish sentiment among traders concerning the ongoing geopolitical situation.

The crude oil market is reacting to the potential for de-escalation in the US-Iran conflict. With 73 days remaining until the projected time frame for resolution, traders are advised to monitor developments closely. A clarification in tensions could lead to a normalization of supply chains and a reduction in price volatility.

How will Trump's remarks influence the crude oil market? Currently, trading volume in the market for June crude oil prices is non-existent, but Trump's comments might ignite trading activity. A decline in expected prices would align with a restoration of stability in shipping routes, specifically in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. However, if ceasefire negotiations falter, prices may rebound, emphasizing the importance of closely following diplomatic discussions.

What should investors keep an eye on? Domestic gas prices have surged, increasing from $2.98 to over $4.16 a gallon amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Should a ceasefire unfold and key shipping lanes reopen, there could be a significant shift in market dynamics. Investing in the bullish scenario assumes continued conflict, while a bet on decreasing tensions may generate favorable returns.

Key indicators to monitor include updates from OPEC and Iran regarding production levels, along with any confirmation of de-escalation from US military officials or diplomatic channels. These signals will play a critical role in determining the trajectory of oil prices in the coming weeks.

Important Notice And Disclaimer

This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. Investments may fall in value and an investor may lose some or all of their investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.