Iran has announced plans to execute Bita Hemmati, a notable protester from the January 2026 uprising in Tehran. This decision has led to a decrease in the likelihood of the regime's fall by May 31, with current predictions sitting at 4.5%, down from 6% just a week ago.
This execution represents a marked increase in state repression amidst ongoing conflicts with the United States and Israel. Despite the recent unrest, market sentiment suggests that traders largely believe in the regime's stability. The odds for a change in Iran's leadership by December 31 now sit at 29.5%, a decline from 32% the previous day, indicating a lowering of expectations regarding potential shifts in power.
The importance of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the judiciary is highlighted by this action, as the regime leans heavily on these institutions to enforce control through public punishment. Predictions for a leadership change by May 31 have also dropped to 13.5% from 16%, reflecting growing skepticism about any imminent alterations.
Current market liquidity remains moderate, with $313 in actual USDC traded on regime fall odds. The market order book indicates that $16,811 is necessary to shift prices by 5 percentage points, suggesting some stability but also a susceptibility to larger trades. Notably, the biggest movement observed was a 1-point drop occurring at 3:54 AM.
The decision to execute Hemmati is more tactical than strategic, as it underscores the regime's readiness to approach dissent with harsh measures to retain power. A YES share on the regime's fall by May 31 is priced at 4¢, offering a $1 payout for a significant return, although this investment carries increased risk without internal fractures emerging.
Investors should remain vigilant for signs of defections from the IRGC or major international intervention, which could potentially disrupt the current equilibrium. Additionally, any notable activity from the Assembly of Experts or public engagements by Mojtaba Khamenei could significantly influence these market conditions.