#What are the rising odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader leaving office?
Prediction markets currently indicate a significant probability that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, may step down or be removed before the end of 2026. These markets estimate the odds of his exit at approximately 65%. The calculations stem from ongoing mass protests and a deepening economic crisis that have contributed to widespread unrest throughout the country.
In particular, platforms like Polymarket are reporting that the likelihood of Khamenei's departure by December 31 has surged from 30% late last year to nearly 65%. Further breakdowns reveal a 24% chance of him leaving by January 31, climbing to 46% by March 31, and reaching 53% by June 30. Meanwhile, Kalshi reports odds of Khamenei’s departure before 2027 at 66%, a notable increase from levels reported weeks prior.
#How is Iran’s economy impacting political stability?
The socio-economic landscape in Iran is grave, with reports of hundreds killed and thousands arrested amid protests. The Iranian economy grapples with a staggering 45% inflation rate and a rapidly deteriorating currency, the rial. This situation has rendered essential goods such as meat and cooking oil nearly unaffordable for many citizens.
The turmoil is exacerbated by U.S.-led sanctions targeting Iran's nuclear program, compounded by endemic corruption and economic mismanagement, pushing the country closer to a full-blown crisis.
#What are the geopolitical implications?
U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified geopolitical tensions by issuing stern warnings about potential military action if protesters are harmed. He has also suggested that any nations engaging in trade with Iran could face a hefty tariff of up to 25% on transactions with the U.S.
Khamenei, having maintained his role for more than 36 years, retains significant power over critical areas including military, foreign policy, and domestic governance. Despite the presence of an elected parliament, Khamenei’s influence is unparalleled, making the potential for a power transition significant on multiple levels. Investors and analysts should keep a close eye on these developments, as they may have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and global geopolitical dynamics.