Iraq is actively working to redirect its oil exports through Turkey following the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing Iran conflict. The new strategy aims to significantly increase the oil flow through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline from about 200,000 barrels per day to between 500,000 and 650,000 barrels per day.
#What are the current oil export limitations?
The collapse of southern exports, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz, saw Iraq's exports drop alarmingly to just 10 million barrels in April 2026. This figure pales in comparison to the normal monthly volumes that usually surpass 93 million barrels, indicating an abrupt decline of approximately 89% in export capacity.
#How will the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline support Iraq’s exports?
The Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline connects northern oil fields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan and has become a vital route for Iraq. Following a deal on March 17, 2026, between the federal government of Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government, oil transportation resumed the next day, initially at a rate of 150,000 to 250,000 barrels per day. Current operations have stabilized at around 200,000 barrels daily, with discussions ongoing to ramp up production to the planned target.
The pipeline has a theoretical maximum capacity of 1.6 million barrels per day, allowing room for significant increases in output. However, the route's history is marked by operational challenges due to sabotage, territorial disputes, and politically motivated halts.
#What factors are influencing the recent deal?
The renewed agreement is crucial for the operational success of Iraq's oil industries. Key participants in this arrangement Include Iraq’s Oil Ministry, the Kurdistan Regional Government’s natural resources department, the Turkish government controlling the Ceyhan terminal, and the North Oil Company.
Remarkably, negotiations progressed rapidly, with the agreement reached and oil exports resuming within a single day.
#Will these efforts be sufficient for Iraq's oil market?
Even if Iraq achieves its ambitious target of 650,000 barrels per day, it would only amount to 19.5 million barrels monthly. This still falls dramatically short of the traditional 93 million barrels exported through southern terminals, compensating for only about 21% of the lost volumes.
It is important to note that the Strait of Hormuz is not only pivotal for Iraq but is a critical conduit for roughly 20% of the global oil supply, impacting exporters like Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as well.