Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, refuted President Trump’s recent claims, asserting rising tensions regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, the market indicates an 86% likelihood that Trump may lift the blockade by May 31. Ghalibaf’s comments suggest that the blockade is likely to persist, despite optimistic market predictions.
As the deadline approaches, market sentiments surrounding other key dates reveal skepticism. For instance, the market for a resolution by April 17 crashed to only 8% likelihood, while April 19 shows just 13.5%. These shifts indicate that traders are losing faith in a swift resolution; however, the large jump between April 19 and May 31 emphasizes anticipations for developments soon after.
In terms of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, the market stands at 30.5%. This aligns with Ghalibaf’s hardline approach and showcases daily trading activity of $267,520 in USDC, reflecting strong interest yet prevalent doubts regarding an imminent peace agreement.
Trade activity around Hormuz indicates $33,928 occurred in the past day, with data showing that a $3,730 investment could shift the May market by five points. The largest single movement recorded was a 2-point spike, indicating market stability amid rising tensions.
Furthermore, Ghalibaf’s rhetoric aligns with market expectations indicating ongoing blockade conditions and a reduced chance of achieving a peace deal. Investors should note that a YES share priced at 82 cents would yield a $1 payout if the blockade is lifted by May 31, offering a potential return of 1.22 times the investment. For this outcome to materialize, there must be a favorable resolution in the next 45 days.
Investors should stay alert for any announcements from Trump or updates from the US Navy, which could significantly influence the blockade or the peace negotiations.