Trump suggests that a deal between the U.S. and Iran could be finalized soon, possibly by tomorrow. However, the market remains skeptical, showing only a 1% chance of a ceasefire by April 7, down from 2% yesterday.
Despite the optimism, traders are hesitant. The term structure indicates a rise in probabilities from April 7 to June 30, with the most significant increase expected between April 30 and May 31. The odds for achieving a ceasefire by May 31 are set at 36%. Trump’s history of failing to meet deadlines reduces enthusiasm among investors, with only a 6% chance of an agreement by April 15. Notably, markets for April 30 and May 31 display higher expectations, signaling that traders anticipate any significant progress to occur later.
Current trading volume stands at approximately $431,402 daily, indicating a strong interest in trading these positions. The depth of the order book is substantial, requiring over $12,000 to adjust the April 7 market by just 5 points. A significant price movement would transcend a simple tweet from Trump, as evidenced by the market's recent behavior; the most significant price change in the last 24 hours was a modest 2-point increase, demonstrating a cautious outlook.
Trump’s recent claims may create more noise than real market signals, especially considering the absence of tangible updates from ongoing discussions in Geneva. A YES share priced at 18 cents for April 30 offers a potential $1 payout if a ceasefire is realized, yielding a return of 5.5 times your investment, but only if one believes a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent. Historical patterns suggest skepticism in this regard.
Investors should keep an eye on developments, particularly comments from political figures like Rubio or Hegseth, who could mention specific negotiation dates or intermediaries such as Oman or Qatar. Such announcements would provide tangible signals of progress, in contrast to another ambitious but vague claim from Trump.