Herzog's legal advisor is engaged in discussions with attorneys involved in Netanyahu's corruption case, raising the possibility of a plea deal. Currently, Netanyahu's anticipated departure by June 30 is trading at 5.5% YES, a slight decrease from 6% observed last week.
#How Are Markets Reacting?
The market for June 30 has experienced a slight decline, while the April 30 market remains stable at 0.2% YES with just two days left until resolution. A significant movement was noted with a 44-point spike in the June 30 market at 11:40 AM, driven by an increase in trading volume.
#Why Is This Important?
The face value of the June 30 contract stands at $112,761, yet the actual USDC traded is only $4,125. The order book is relatively thin, meaning that $13,746 in trades can shift the June 30 market by 5 points, indicating that it remains susceptible to larger transactions. The recent 44-point spike highlights how a few substantial orders can dramatically alter market expectations.
#What Should Investors Monitor?
As these discussions are still exploratory, they do not guarantee immediate action. While a plea deal may potentially lead to Netanyahu's resignation, this stage poses no immediate legal implications. With a price of 5.5¢, a YES position could yield 18 times the investment if resolved positively. Until there is tangible movement towards a formal agreement, these preliminary talks may have limited impact.
Key aspects to observe include public comments from Herzog or Netanyahu's legal representatives and any news indicating whether these discussions progress past this initial phase. Any formal plea agreement is expected to sharply influence these market contracts.