#What is the Current Status of Putin's Approval Ratings?
The approval ratings of Vladimir Putin have seen a decline for seven consecutive weeks, reaching the lowest point since the onset of the war in Ukraine. According to the state pollster VTsIOM, Putin’s approval now stands at 65.6%. Despite this drop, the market's perception regarding the possibility of Putin being ousted from the presidency by June 30 remains meager, with the probability sitting at just 2.9% YES.
#What Does This Market Reaction Indicate?
The trading market related to Putin's political future has exhibited minimal movement despite the declining approval ratings. The Polymarket contract indicates a very slight decrease from 3% to 2.9% in the last week, suggesting that traders do not foresee a significant change leading to his removal in the coming months, considering only 67 days remain until the June deadline.
The market's thin liquidity is notable, with recent trading volume around $337 in USDC and a mere $818 needed to affect the odds by five percentage points. This situation means that even small trades can lead to large swings in market sentiment. Currently, the market reflects a belief that Putin's position remains stable in the near term.
#Why is This Noteworthy?
The consecutive weeks of declining approval ratings represent the most extended drop since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. However, an approval rating of 65.6%, despite being a wartime low, remains sufficiently high to mitigate immediate risks to Putin's presidency. The disconnect between declining domestic approval and near-zero probability of political upheaval underscores Putin’s firm grip on Russia’s political landscape.
#What Should Investors Monitor?
For investors considering the option of buying YES at the current 2.9¢ rate, which promises a return of $1 if he exits by June 30, it is vital to recognize that this bet hinges on believing a significant catalyst is imminent. Potential triggers could include a sudden palace coup, health issues that affect his leadership, or fractures within the security apparatus.
Watching key figures like Sergey Shoygu or Nikolai Patrushev could provide insights into any shifts in loyalty or stability within the government. Additionally, monitoring both international and domestic developments could offer signals regarding the durability of Putin's control over Russia and its implications for broader market movements.