Morgan Stanley is positioning SpaceX as a future titan, predicting a staggering worth surpassing the UK's GDP by 2040. Their analysts project that SpaceX's revenue could soar to $3.4 trillion and an adjusted EBITDA of over $2.7 trillion. Such figures would establish SpaceX as one of the most profitable companies in history.
The leap from SpaceX’s reported revenue of $18.7 billion in 2025 to the projected $3.4 trillion represents a massive growth of approximately 180 times within a fifteen-year span, a monumental feat for any organization.
#What Does This Mean For The Upcoming IPO?
The ambitious projections were unveiled during SpaceX's IPO roadshow, where Morgan Stanley acts as a co-lead underwriter for an offering looking at a valuation around $1.77 trillion. The company aims to be listed on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX and is working towards raising about $75 billion from investors.
Notably, access to this IPO has been restricted for Chinese and Hong Kong investors, which may focus the offering more on North American and other global investors.
#Where Are These Projections Coming From?
Morgan Stanley's positive outlook hinges on three central elements: the expansive Starlink satellite internet network, the cutting-edge Starship heavy-lift rocket system, and ventures into artificial intelligence. The AI sector is a critical player in these future earnings, with reports estimating SpaceX's AI-related business could achieve revenue of $190 billion by 2030, a tenfold increase from its 2025 figures.
Starlink already boasts the largest satellite constellation, while SpaceX's Starship represents ongoing advancements in reusable rocket technology, developed since the company’s inception in 2002.
#How Should Investors Interpret These Numbers?
As underwriters, Morgan Stanley has a vested interest in presenting SpaceX as an exceptionally attractive investment opportunity, suggesting it mirrors the early days of Amazon. The growth from $18.7 billion to $3.4 trillion signifies a compound annual growth rate of roughly 42%, notably higher than Amazon's peak 15-year growth of about 28%.
The projected adjusted EBITDA of over $2.7 trillion indicates a margin close to 79%. While software companies may achieve these high margins, traditional aerospace firms usually do not.
The AI revenue projection of $190 billion by 2030 is crucial, as it can be assessed in a shorter timeframe. If SpaceX successfully generates significant revenue from AI-related services within the next four years, it could strongly support the overall valuation narrative.