SpaceX may soon become the most valuable company ever to go public without waiting for the typical lengthy process to be indexed by major funds. On June 8, MSCI announced it would apply its early inclusion rules to SpaceX’s Global Standard Indexes. This decision enables the company to be added to key indexes approximately ten trading days after its Nasdaq debut on June 12. In contrast, most companies undergo a lengthy waiting period before their first scheduled index rebalance.
What does the biggest IPO in history look like?
SpaceX is anticipating a valuation of around $1.75 trillion, aiming to raise approximately $75 billion through its initial public offering. If successful, this offering would far exceed any previous IPO in history.
The final price for these shares is set for June 11, just one day before trading begins. Of note is that only about 7% of SpaceX’s shares are expected to be available for public trading, meaning most of its equity remains with company insiders, including CEO Elon Musk.
This limited free float warrants attention. When MSCI includes a stock in its indexes, passive funds that track these benchmarks must purchase shares to maintain their allocation. The resulting buying pressure, coupled with a mere 7% availability for public trading, could lead to a significant supply squeeze once the stock enters the market.
What importance does MSCI's fast-track inclusion carry?
The fast-track inclusion policy adopted by MSCI is not a new concept. They have longstanding regulations for swift additions based on market capitalization and free float criteria, and similar policies exist with other index providers such as Russell and FTSE.
Given a valuation of $1.75 trillion, SpaceX’s inclusion in key indexes will have a substantial impact. The forced buying demand from these funds can create significant liquidity inflows, expected roughly ten trading days post-listing.
This year has already seen a surge in prominent IPOs, and it seems 2026 will feature even more major players like OpenAI, representing a trend where top private technology firms are finally choosing to access the public markets after long periods of remaining private.
How does this affect investors?
The MSCI transition creates a well-defined catalyst for investors. Those purchasing SpaceX shares near the IPO price can anticipate a wave of compulsory institutional buying within a short window. Despite its limited free float, the stock is likely to experience notable volatility. A thin float combined with overwhelming passive demand equates to potential price fluctuations in multiple directions.
As SpaceX positions itself with a valuation of $1.75 trillion, it will rank amongst the most valuable global corporations. This figure represents about 94 times its projected revenue for 2025. Though SpaceX is currently not profitable, the necessary capital for developing its Starship project and satellite manufacturing shows no signs of abating.