Stripe and Advent International are making headlines with their recent $53 billion takeover bid for PayPal, offering $60.50 per share. However, many shareholders, prominently including notable investor Michael Burry, view this offer as undervaluing the company. Despite the criticism, prediction markets suggest that the deal has a high likelihood of proceeding, with the probability of the deal closing on Polymarket soaring to approximately 80%.
The proposed offer gives a 28% premium over PayPal’s last closing price of $47.37, appearing generous. Yet, considering that PayPal shares peaked above $300 during the pandemic, the sentiment among investors varies.
The bid faced immediate market reactions, with PayPal shares experiencing a surge of 13% to 19% in early trading after the news broke. Michael Burry has assessed PayPal’s intrinsic value to be between $75 and $115, estimating closer to $100. This valuation indicates that Stripe and Advent's bid reflects a significant discount from PayPal’s true worth. Burry has publicly stated his intentions to retain his shares rather than accept the offer.
In the aftermath of the announcement, official responses from PayPal, Stripe, and Advent remain absent. However, this isn't Stripe's first proposed acquisition. An attempt was made in April 2026, but it was ignored by PayPal’s board. The renewed interest from Stripe and Advent, backed by around $50 billion in bank financing, indicates their determination to push this proposal forward. The aim is to finalize an agreement by the end of July 2026, giving PayPal a limited window for deliberation.
If the acquisition is successful, it would rank as one of the largest in fintech history, merging Stripe's innovative payment infrastructure with PayPal's extensive consumer wallet and user base exceeding 400 million.
In the context of cryptocurrency and fintech, both companies have established their presence in the digital asset space. PayPal initiated crypto trading for U.S. users in 2020 and later launched PayPal USD, its own stablecoin. Meanwhile, Stripe resumed crypto payment support in 2024. Although no immediate impacts on cryptocurrency prices have been observed, the market's implied probability suggests that traders believe in the deal's potential for completion, possibly even at a revised price point.