Bitcoin's hash rate experienced a significant drop of 4% over the last month, marking the steepest decline since April of this year. According to analysis by VanEck, such declines in hash rate have historically preceded price increases in Bitcoin, with expectations for rebound gains over the next three to six months.
This recent downturn in hash rate is attributed to miner capitulation as profitability wanes, prompting higher-cost miners to cease operations. This decision is influenced by the aftermath of the Bitcoin halving, declining prices, and a shift towards reallocating resources to more profitable ventures, such as AI workloads.
VanEck's research shows a positive correlation between short-term hash rate declines and Bitcoin’s performance. When examining returns over a 90-day period following a drop in hash rate, Bitcoin recorded positive returns 65% of the time. In contrast, returns were only positive 54% of the time when hash rates were rising. Over a longer period of 180 days, negative growth in hash rate aligned with positive returns 77% of the time.
Historically, Bitcoin has averaged a gain of 72% over 180 days after experiencing a hash rate drop of 30 days or more. In comparison, periods of increased mining activity resulted in an average gain of 48%.
Bitcoin's trading price is currently around $88,000, reflecting a slight downturn of 1% in the past day, based on CoinGecko's data. As analysts look ahead to 2026, opinions are divided, with some projecting a pullback to approximately $65,000.