The US blockade is increasingly focusing on Iran’s shadow fleet, expanding its enforcement measures well beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, traffic through the Strait is stabilizing, with a normalization rate of 55.5% as of April 30, down slightly from 60% the previous day.
Recognizing the broadening scope of the blockade, traders are adjusting their pricing, reflecting heightened tensions and anticipated prolonged market disruptions. As of now, the market forecast for the end of May remains high at 82%, indicating traders still anticipate a resolution before the start of June.
In terms of trading volume, the April 30 contract has seen $10,250 in actual USDC movement, with just $354 required to shift the price by 5 points. This limited liquidity accounts for a noticeable drop of 4 points due to the recent developments.
By targeting the shadow fleet on a global scale, the US demonstrates a serious intent to completely sever Iranian oil exports. For context, a YES share priced at 50 cents can yield a return of $1 if traffic normalizes by April 30, doubling the initial investment. However, this opportunity hinges on the assumption that swift de-escalation or a diplomatic breakthrough is achievable within the next two weeks.
Investors should closely monitor announcements from the US 5th Fleet regarding naval activities and keep an eye on movements from the IRGC Navy. Any shifts in their operational language or new provocations could lead to rapid changes in the trading contracts.