Recent large pro-government rallies in Tehran demonstrate the Iranian regime's solid footing amidst ongoing conflicts. Despite rising tensions due to US-Israeli airstrikes, the odds for a regime change in Iran remain very low, currently sitting at 3% for a potential fall by May 31. This figure has seen little change from the previous day but has dipped from 6% a week ago, reflecting a stable political environment within the country.
The demonstrations appear to bolster regime support, indicating that public sentiment is largely behind the government at this time. In relation to leadership dynamics, the market indicates a decreased likelihood of a change in leadership before the end of 2026. The chances of Reza Pahlavi's return to Iran are also minimal, with probabilities of 4.5% by June 30 and 13.5% by December 31. Both figures have seen slight increases recently.
The financial markets related to the regime's stability are telling. The regime-fall market shows a daily face value of $471,696, with only $13,145 traded in USDC. The market appears stable, as it requires a significant investment of $15,683 to alter the odds by 5 percentage points, demonstrating that buyers are holding their positions firmly.
Given the current trends, the chance for a government collapse seems slim unless certain events occur. For instance, defections within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or significant fractures within the leadership could alter this outlook. Investors should remain vigilant for shifts in Iran's internal dynamics, including statements from influential bodies like the Assembly of Experts and any changes in US diplomatic strategies, as these could impact the aforementioned odds significantly.