Iran's parliament speaker has rejected a US 15-point proposal that was delivered via Pakistan, signaling a significant setback in pursuing a peace deal. Current estimates suggest that the likelihood of a permanent US-Iran agreement by April 22, 2026, stands at only 19.5%. This is a drastic decrease from earlier projections, indicating a drop in confidence across various timeframes.
The decline in confidence is noteworthy. The market expectation for a deal by April 22 plummeted from 40% to 19.5%. Similarly, the projection for April 30 fell from 61% to 36.5%. The most dramatic fall occurred in the June 30 estimates, which dropped from 81% to 67.5% in just a single day.
This rejection reinforces the existing stalemate between the involved parties, pointing toward no progress. Significantly, the gap between the projections from April 30 to May 31 reflects trader sentiments about a potential catalyst for change, as the odds increased by 21 points during that time. However, given the proximity to the April 22 deadline, the immediate outlook remains bleak.
In terms of trading activity, USDC volume reached $1,644,301 within the past 24 hours. A notable event was a sudden 5-point drop in the April 22 market recorded at 5:56 PM, with calculations indicating that it requires $9,404 to influence the price by 5 points. This illustrates how substantial trades can significantly alter market sentiments.
The rejection of the proposal makes it exceedingly improbable to finalize a deal by April 22. For investors, a YES share priced at 17.5¢ offers a potential payout of $1 upon the successful reach of a deal, resulting in a fivefold return. However, to justify this investment, one would need to anticipate a swift diplomatic turnaround, which is challenging to substantiate given the public rejection and ongoing tensions.
Investors should keep an eye on forthcoming statements from the Iranian Supreme National Security Council and any further diplomatic gestures from the US through intermediaries like Pakistan. Any update or fresh attempts at negotiations could have a direct impact on market odds and investor sentiment.