What is Alexandra Merz’s stance on SpaceX shares? Merz, the CEO of L&F Investor Services and advocate for retail Tesla investors, is choosing to avoid investing in SpaceX ahead of its expected IPO. She posits that Elon Musk may merge Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI, which would provide Tesla shareholders indirect exposure to SpaceX shares at a potentially more favorable price. This approach is grounded in her belief that owning Tesla stock could effectively serve as an indirect investment in SpaceX as well.
#How could a merger impact investor values?
In her analysis, Merz has outlined various financial scenarios suggesting how a merger between Tesla and SpaceX could unfold. A hypothetical merger involving a $2.5 trillion SpaceX and a $1.6 trillion Tesla could yield a combined entity valued at around $4.1 trillion. In such a scenario, Tesla shareholders might realize a value increase of about $450 billion if the merger is structured fairly, instead of merely averaging market capitalizations.
Merz has articulated that she experiences no fear of missing out on the SpaceX investment opportunity. She has consistently discussed her perspective on various platforms, including detailed explanations of potential merger mechanics in public forums.
#What does the market predict for the SpaceX IPO?
The sentiment around a SpaceX IPO is intensifying rapidly. Prediction markets indicate that the likelihood of a public offering increased significantly, rising from approximately 15% in early June 2026 to around 70% by the following month. Projections suggest this figure could exceed 80% by August, with SpaceX reportedly preparing its necessary S-1 filing paperwork for the public launch, anticipating a notably low initial public offering estimate of about 4.3%.
Despite the optimistic outlook for a June 9, 2026 IPO, Merz continues to prioritize merger possibilities instead.
#How do regulation differences affect investors?
Investors must consider that Tesla and SpaceX are subjected to different regulatory frameworks. Tesla functions as a publicly traded automotive and energy entity, operating under SEC regulations such as shareholder voting and financial disclosures. Conversely, SpaceX engages primarily in classified government contracts and is governed by more complex export control laws, complicating any potential corporate restructuring.
For retail investors observing the situation, the key question is clear. If the market trends suggest a merger is on the horizon, investing in Tesla provides a cost-effective pathway to gain eventual exposure to SpaceX. On the other hand, those anticipating a standalone IPO may find themselves sidelined from what could be one of the largest public offerings in market history. Should Merz's merger predictions fail to materialize, her investment in Tesla remains solid, backed by its own growth potential as a $1.6 trillion company. Conversely, if a merger occurs, she anticipates achieving exposure to SpaceX at a discount we might not otherwise see.