China's President Xi Jinping has called for an immediate ceasefire and the resumption of normal transit through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. This call comes amid rising tensions between the US and Iran and has led to a significant adjustment in the market for the US-Iran ceasefire extension, now sitting at 69.5% likelihood by April 21, 2026, down from 86% just a day prior.
As there are only a few days remaining before the expiry, the market's volume currently stands at $82,767 in USDC on a daily basis. Notably, the likelihood of UK warships passing through the Strait by April 30 has also dipped to 8.5%, down from 12% previously. Xi's diplomatic efforts could potentially lower the chances of UK warship deployments if negotiations see progress.
For the ceasefire extension, a YES share is currently valued at 64.5¢, which could yield $1 if the ceasefire is extended by the specified date, offering a 1.55x return on investment. The pressing question for traders is whether three days is sufficient for negotiations to yield positive results, especially since Xi's involvement seems to have shaken their confidence.
Investors and traders should stay alert for any responses from CENTCOM or statements from European leaders, as these could influence both the ceasefire and UK warship markets significantly.