The Great Gold Pivot: Why Miners Are Betting on Higher Prices

By Kirsteen Mackay

Jan 13, 2026

4 min read

In 2025, gold demand flipped. As consumer appetite faded, investors and central banks took control—and miners started betting on higher prices.

The Great Gold Pivot Infographic

Sponsored by: Canterra Minerals. Download the company’s latest investor overview.

Gold prices have officially decoupled from the consumer, hitting record highs in 2025 even as traditional buyers retreat. The traditional foundation of jewellery demand has weakened, making way for a clear shift toward investment-driven momentum. From Q1 to Q3, total demand remained resilient, but the profile of the buyer changed dramatically. Investors and central banks stepped up, while miners made a bold move: refusing to lock in today's record prices to stay fully exposed to the rally.

#Why This Shift Matters for Retail Investors

  • Gold is now behaving more like a financial asset than a consumer good.
  • Jewellery volume is falling, but investment and central bank demand is rising.
  • Miners are actively de-hedging, reducing future committed supply.
  • Investment demand is being driven by inflation risk, dollar weakness, and portfolio diversification needs.
  • Retail investors can take cues from institutional behavior to assess market sentiment.

#The Demand Picture: Consumers Out, Capital In

According to the World Gold Council data from Q1 to Q3 2025, jewellery consumption declined each quarter from 382 tonnes in Q1 to 341 tonnes in Q2, and only a modest bounce to 371 tonnes in Q3. This roughly 19% year-over-year drop in volume is directly linked to record gold prices, which averaged $3,456/oz in Q3.

In contrast, investment demand has filled the gap. It peaked at 552 tonnes in Q1 and remained high at 537 tonnes in Q3. Central bank demand remained a solid pillar, rebounding to 220 tonnes in Q3 from 172 tonnes in Q2. Combined, these two segments have become the new backbone of the gold market.

This shift suggests that gold is being treated less as a luxury purchase and more as a strategic holding. For retail investors, it highlights that price sensitivity is falling among large buyers who prioritize diversification and stability over cost per gram.

SectorQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Investment205.1267.6364.8343.4551.5477.5537.2
Central Bank and Other Institutions313.3211.5199.5365.1241.7172.0219.9
Jewellery Consumption483.5395.6460.0548.7382.4341.2371.3
Technology80.280.282.982.880.478.681.7

#Supply-Side Confirmation: Miners Are Maximizing Exposure

While demand trends tell one side of the story, producer behavior tells another. The Net Hedging chart data indicates that miners have reduced their hedge book every quarter in 2025. Since Q1 2024, miners have unwound a cumulative 94 tonnes of future sales commitments.

  • Q1 2025: -7.1 tonnes
  • Q2 2025: -24.8 tonnes
  • Q3 2025: -8.0 tonnes

Why does this matter? Hedging typically limits upside by locking in future sales at a fixed price. By reducing hedges, miners are effectively removing their revenue caps. In a record-price environment, this behavior suggests that mining management teams are prioritizing spot price exposure over revenue certainty, an implicit vote of confidence that the current rally may have further upside potential. This is especially notable because prices are already at record highs.

For investors in gold mining stocks, this move has double implications: it suggests confidence from company management, and it tightens supply just as demand from institutions and ETFs grows. The result is a market increasingly driven by financial flows, not consumer behavior.

The official data figures (tonnes) are:

Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Net Producer Hedging-8.8-20.4-6.5-18.5-7.1-24.8-8.0

#The Market Needs New Ounces To Feed This Deficit

With miners holding back supply and investors demanding more bullion, the gold market is facing a structural squeeze. The only long-term solution is discovery. This creates a premium environment for junior explorers capable of defining high-grade ounces in safe jurisdictions, and Canterra Minerals is positioning itself to fill this gap.

#Canterra Launches Drilling in Newfoundland Gold Belt

Canterra Minerals Corp. (TSX-V: CTM) (OTCQB: CTMCF) reported strong high-grade results from its 2025 drill program at the 100% owned Buchans Project in Central Newfoundland. Step-out holes are extending both length and grade beyond current limits, highlighting upside at the Lundberg deposit and nearby targets. It also announced that drilling is underway at its Wilding Gold Project in central Newfoundland, following the identification of new high-grade gold targets during its 2025 summer program, which returned samples up to 535 g/t Au.The Wilding Project extends 55 km along the same gold-bearing corridor that hosts Equinox Gold’s producing Valentine Mine, immediately adjacent to Canterra’s property.

Lundberg Resource Initial Drill Highlights Include:

  • 7.73% CuEq over 4.45 metres (1.11% Cu, 11.38% Zn, 7.02% Pb, 125.5 g/t Ag & 1.24 g/t Au)
  • 1.85% CuEq over 26.0 metres (0.84% Cu, 2.13% Zn, 1.30% Pb, 8.2 g/t Ag & 0.08 g/t Au), extending the Lundberg stockwork zone 80m beyond the current Lundberg Resource. At depth, the hole reached mineralization of 1.72% CuEq over 6m (0.28% Cu, 3.36% Zn, 1.55% Pb, 8.6 g/t Ag & 0.12 g/t Au)
  • Two Level Zone mineralized footprint now expanded to approximately 200m x 50m

Read our clear Q&A on the results, covering what happened and why it matters.

Wilding Gold Project Highlights include:

  • 1,200 m of large diameter (HQ) core drilling is planned across 15 drill holes.
  • Drilling will target new areas of gold-bearing quartz veins along known structures that have not been tested by previous drilling.
  • The targets have been defined by summer 2025 field work and prospecting results as well as targets derived from newly re-interpreted IP geophysics and historical work.
  • The Company now believes the highest-grade gold lies in veins running parallel to earlier drill holes, revealing a new structural model for the project.
  • Advanced imaging and detailed mapping, including new downhole camera surveys and drone-based photos, have refined Canterra’s understanding of the geology and strengthened confidence in its targets.

Read our Q&A on what’s being tested, why it matters, and what could come next.

Canterra’s position in this emerging district places it early in the exploration cycle, as Newfoundland experiences renewed interest driven by recent high-grade gold discoveries. With backing from known mineral investors Eric Sprott and Michael Gentile, Canterra Minerals is consolidating Newfoundland’s copper-gold potential.

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