Anthropic’s potential public debut is drawing a sharp challenge over what investors should pay for its growth. In an October 6 report, research firm New Constructs called it the “most ridiculous IPO of 2026,” arguing that a reported $2 trillion valuation demands extraordinary future profits [1].
The growth case deserves attention. Anthropic said its annualized revenue run rate crossed $47 billion in May, when it raised $65 billion at a $965 billion valuation [2]. Reuters reported on August 17, citing a person familiar with the matter, that Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion by the end of July. Businesses adopting Claude could provide a substantial recurring customer base. The question is how much of that spending can eventually become profit. Indeed, Reuters reported that nearly a quarter of 2025 revenue came from two customers, and many of Anthropic’s largest clients lacked long-term contracts and could reduce or stop spending.
#The $42 Billion Loss Needs Context
Reuters reported that Anthropic generated nearly $4.6 billion in revenue in 2025 and recorded a roughly $42 billion net loss, based on a prospectus it reviewed. About $34 billion of that loss reflected a financing revaluation charge, rather than spending to operate the business. Its operating loss was $8.06 billion [3].
That distinction matters. Treating the entire net loss as cash burned would exaggerate the operating burden. Even so, an operating loss larger than annual revenue leaves a demanding profitability challenge. The prospectus also disclosed $518 billion in future cloud, computing and infrastructure obligations, according to Reuters.
The more useful test is whether each additional dollar of customer spending becomes cheaper to serve. Revenue can expand rapidly while the business still needs substantial outside funding if computing costs and research spending rise alongside demand.
#Growth Does Not Set the Right Price
Annualized revenue also needs careful interpretation. A run rate projects a recent pace of sales across a full year. It is not revenue already earned over that year, and it does not establish profitability.
At a reported $2 trillion valuation, investors would be paying more than twice Anthropic’s May private valuation. Strong adoption could support a premium if customers keep using Claude, expand spending, and find it difficult to replace. Those outcomes remain central to the investment case.
New Constructs’ published analysis contains several valuation scenarios. One produces an estimated equity value of $144 billion, broadly consistent with the roughly $150 billion figure cited in coverage. That result depends on assumptions about growth, margins, investment needs, and future obligations. It is a bearish model outcome, rather than an independently established market value.
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#Lower Prices Raise the Stakes
Pricing is already moving. On October 7, Anthropic introduced Claude Haiku 5.5 at a price 75% below its predecessor, according to Reuters [4]. Cheaper access could broaden adoption and make more business applications economical.
But lower prices make cost discipline more consequential. If serving customers becomes cheaper even faster, margins could improve. If usage grows without enough cost savings, rising sales could coexist with continuing losses.
New Constructs argues that competition from open-source models will weaken pricing power. The counterargument is that businesses may pay for reliability, security, integration, and support even when cheaper alternatives exist.
The next public filing should clarify recent margins, financing requirements, and how IPO proceeds would be used. Anthropic’s commercial momentum is substantial. The unresolved tension is whether that momentum can produce enough durable profit to justify the price public investors are asked to pay.