Humana Inc (NYSE:HUM) faced a notable decline in its stock after the company adjusted its 2025 earnings and membership forecasts. On Wednesday, Humana announced that it now expects its individual Medicare Advantage membership to decline by approximately 425,000 members, an improvement from a prior forecast of a decline of up to 500,000. The company cited national enrollment trends in the sector.
In addition to the updated membership outlook, Humana reported a medical-loss ratio—the share of premiums paid out for medical costs—of 91.1% for the third quarter, in line with analyst expectations. The insurer reaffirmed its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of around $17, but lowered its GAAP EPS outlook to about $12.26 from a previous estimate of roughly $13.77.
For the third quarter, Humana reported adjusted earnings per share of $3.24, beating the FactSet consensus estimate of $2.93. GAAP earnings per share were $1.62, down from $3.98 a year earlier, reflecting charges related to cost-saving and productivity initiatives. Revenue totaled roughly $32 billion, slightly above expectations.
Humana’s stock fell 3.6% in premarket trading following the announcements. Shares have risen about 11% in 2025 so far, recovering from a steep decline of more than 40% in 2024.
#Investor Takeaway
Humana’s improved Medicare Advantage outlook suggests stabilization, but the lowered profit forecast adds uncertainty about margins heading into 2026.
#Market Impact
Humana’s stock reaction reflects investor caution over earnings sustainability amid tight cost controls and competitive Medicare markets. The revised outlook could influence broader sentiment in the managed-care sector.
#What’s Next
Investors should monitor Humana’s upcoming policy announcements, earnings updates, and trends in Medicare Advantage enrollment, which remain key to its 2026 growth trajectory.
#Broader Market Context
The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) rose 0.04% Wednesday, while the S&P 500 showed mixed performance. Other health insurers, including Cigna and UnitedHealth, may face similar cost pressures and enrollment headwinds in the coming quarters.