Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE: LLY) has had a big two days. On Oct 28, it said its experimental weight-loss drug retatrutide beat Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic in a head-to-head trial in people with type 2 diabetes [1]. On Oct 29, it reported third-quarter revenue of $24.4 billion, up 39%, and raised its full-year sales forecast to $91 billion to $92 billion [2].
The quarter came in about $2 billion ahead of Wall Street estimates [3], and the shares rose about 4% before the market opened [4]. Mounjaro sales rose 65% to $10.7 billion, while Zepbound grew 49% to about $5.35 billion.
#Why Retatrutide Matters
Retatrutide works differently from today’s leading drugs. It mimics three gut hormones rather than one or two, which is why some call it “triple G.” In the 80-week trial of nearly 1,300 adults, patients on the highest dose lost 20.9% of their body weight, about 47 pounds. Those on Ozempic's highest approved 2 mg dose lost 9.4%, about 21 pounds.
It also did a better job of lowering blood sugar, cutting A1C, a key diabetes measure, by 2.2 points against 1.8 for Ozempic. For Lilly, it points to a strong successor product while its current drugs are still growing fast.
The trial focused primarily on diabetes control, rather than weight loss, and did not compare retatrutide with Wegovy, Novo Nordisk's higher-dose obesity treatment.
#Growing Volume, Falling Prices
The headline numbers hide a shift worth watching. Lilly sold 53% more volume worldwide, but the prices it actually received fell 15%. In the US, prices fell 7%, mainly on Zepbound. Outside the US, they dropped 29%, largely because Mounjaro was added to China’s national reimbursement list at a lower price.
That trade-off has worked so far, since volume is rising far faster than prices are falling. But it shows Lilly is buying growth with lower prices, and that pressure could build as competition spreads.
A sharper way to see the markets in just 5 minutes.
Same news, different lens. We cut through the noise and hand you the overlooked ideas and the deeper read the crowd misses. Join 38,000+ investors seeing the markets differently.
#What Could Go Wrong
Retatrutide is not approved anywhere yet, and Lilly gave no timeline. Side effects also showed up more often at higher doses. About 7.9% of patients on the 12 mg dose stopped treatment because of side effects, compared with 2.7% on Ozempic.
Profit also looks less impressive than sales. Lilly trimmed its full-year non-GAAP earnings per share forecast to $35 to $36, as charges tied to acquired drug development programs more than offset an improvement in its underlying earnings outlook. Watch for the full retatrutide data at a medical meeting, any filing timeline, and whether prices keep sliding faster than volume can make up for it.