Washington may be about to give the quantum industry a longer runway. Congress could soon reauthorize the National Quantum Initiative, the federal program that coordinates quantum research across agencies. The Senate bill would extend key authorities through December 2034 and authorize $85M a year for NIST and up to $25M a year for NASA from fiscal 2026 through 2030 [1]. Jefferies sees D-Wave (QBTS), Rigetti (RGTI), Quantinuum and IonQ (IONQ) as possible beneficiaries, especially those already doing federal work.
The logic is simple. Federal money backs research, supply-chain security and cooperation with allies, and it signals that quantum is a national priority. That can lift sentiment across the whole group of stocks, not just one name.
#Why This Time Could Be Different
Authorization for several of the program's R&D activities lapsed in 2023, and earlier reauthorization attempts stalled. A Senate reauthorization bill introduced in late 2024 never advanced beyond committee, while a 2023 House bill cleared committee but never reached a floor vote [2]. This round has moved further. The Senate Commerce Committee approved its bill unanimously [3], and a House version cleared committee by voice vote, though it only runs to 2032 [4]. The two chambers will need to reconcile that gap.
The industry is already feeling Washington's support. The Commerce Department committed $2B to quantum and chip firms this year, with $100M each going to D-Wave, Rigetti and Quantinuum in exchange for minority government stakes [5]. IonQ was left out of that round. Federal ties already separate the names, which is why Jefferies' focus on firms with government work matters.
#What Could Go Wrong
Reauthorization sets a spending ceiling, not a guarantee. Congress still has to appropriate the money each year, and the sums in the bill are small next to the valuations these companies carry. The pure plays also generate relatively little revenue today. Jefferies rated IonQ and D-Wave a Buy and Rigetti a Hold when it started coverage, and IonQ led the group with $43.1M of 2024 revenue while D-Wave made just $8.8M [6].
However, good policy news has not protected these stocks from sharp drops before.
The deeper question is whether public funding can help quantum computing become a business that pays its own way. Watch for a floor vote, how the House and Senate end dates are reconciled, and whether the funding shows up in company revenue rather than just headlines.
Want a closer look at one of the names in this group? Read our full analysis of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) here.