Copper prices remain elevated as investors weigh strong demand drivers against supply bottlenecks. Majors like Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), BHP Group (NYSE: BHP), and Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO) are highlighting structural risks, while junior explorer Canterra Minerals Corp. (TSX-V: CTM) (OTCQB: CTMCF) offers small-cap exposure in a well-established mining region. Electrification, AI infrastructure, and grid upgrades are accelerating demand, even as ore grades fall and permitting slows new supply.
Global leaders Freeport, BHP, and Southern Copper are reinforcing the view that copper demand is shifting from cyclical to structural. While their production expansions may soften near-term pressure, systemic challenges, declining grades, energy costs, and permitting delays are capping growth. Copper futures recently hit multi-week highs as tightening supply underpins the market, while analysts such as those at Sprott believe the market may have already entered a supply deficit in 20251.
Canada’s copper-gold small-cap Canterra Minerals Corp. (TSX-V: CTM) (OTCQB: CTMCF) has launched Phase 3 of its fully funded 10,000-metre drill program at the Buchans Project in central Newfoundland2, following a 3D IP survey that outlined multiple high-priority anomalies along the same stratigraphy as the historic Buchans Mine. Buchans was among the world’s richest VMS deposits, producing zinc, lead, copper, silver, and gold.
Drilling at the nearby Pumphouse target3 has already intersected high-grade copper and base metals, just 800 metres from the Lundberg Deposit, which contains a sizable current resource adjacent to another former high-grade mine, Lucky Strike. What sets Canterra apart is total district control. For the first time in the region’s history, one company holds 100% of the known copper-gold deposits in central Newfoundland, outside of Equinox Gold’s Valentine Mine. This gives Canterra a first-mover advantage in a mining-friendly Canadian jurisdiction, with discovery-driven upside tied directly to copper’s structural demand growth.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), the largest publicly traded copper producer, remains central to market stability. The company is modestly increasing its output, but declines in ore grade at its Grasberg4 and other key assets highlight the industry-wide challenge of maintaining supply growth. Freeport has signaled that while incremental expansion is possible, large-scale new projects face headwinds from permitting and energy costs5. With total copper demand forecast to rise nearly 50% over the next 25 years6, Freeport’s existing production scale gives it resilience, yet also underscores how even the largest producers cannot keep pace with structural demand growth without significant investment and favorable regulatory shifts. This structural gap highlights why juniors like Canterra, which already control district-scale copper-gold projects in politically stable regions with supportive permitting, are gaining investor attention as potential future suppliers or strategic acquisition targets.
BHP Group (NYSE: BHP), one of the world’s largest diversified miners, has achieved record copper production, with volumes up 28% in three years to reach 2 Mtpa, while sustaining EBITDA margins above 50%7. Copper now accounts for nearly half of group EBITDA, underscoring its role as a strategic growth pillar. In Chile, where BHP operates Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, the company is advancing a $2 billion concentrator optimization and expanding desalination capacity to secure a long-term water supply8. While permitting and resource challenges remain across the industry, BHP’s continued investment highlights both the scale of demand growth and the critical need for additional supply sources, a backdrop that creates opportunities for well-positioned juniors. This dynamic reinforces copper’s tight supply outlook and supports prices as structural demand continues to accelerate.
Southern Copper (NYSE: SCCO), one of the world’s lowest-cost producers, offers pure-play copper exposure with operations concentrated in Peru and Mexico. The company’s strong margins and net profit margin of ~30% in mid-2025 highlight its cost advantage9. Geopolitical risk in Latin America is an overhang, but SCCO’s strong balance sheet and industry-leading cost base enable it to deliver both capital appreciation and income upside in a sustained copper bull market.
Copper’s supply crunch is shifting from speculative narrative to market reality. Canterra, Freeport, BHP, and Southern Copper are all positioned differently, yet all face the same backdrop: demand tied to electrification, AI data centers, and military spending is accelerating faster than supply growth. With inventories falling and deficits looming, the copper market’s structural tightness looks set to persist.
Canterra’s district-scale control is especially compelling against the backdrop of tightening copper inventories and accelerating demand from AI infrastructure, EVs, and grid upgrades. In favorable regulatory environments like Newfoundland, juniors with discovery potential and strong positions are gaining investor attention. Canterra’s ongoing exploration, with fresh discoveries and aggressive drilling, provides direct exposure to this copper-gold growth story in one of Canada’s most prospective VMS districts.