Peru's ONPE has released its voting statistics, indicating that Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez are currently leading the polls, with 92% of the votes counted. This places their chances of advancing to the 2026 presidential runoff in a favorable position. In contrast, Rafael López Aliaga's likelihood of winning has dropped to 16.5%, a decrease from 18% seen just a week ago.
What has caused the decline in López Aliaga’s prospects? His odds regarding advancement in the Candidates Advancing to the 2026 Peru Presidential Runoff market have diminished significantly, now suggesting he may not make it to the June 7 runoff due to the confirmed leading votes for Fujimori and Sánchez. The most recent ONPE count implies it will be difficult for him to regain a competitive stance.
López Aliaga's current 16.5% YES odds reflects the market's perception of his dwindling chances. With a market trading value of approximately $1.68 million and actual USDC activity hitting $210,000, there is significant liquidity. Notably, there was a marked decline in his odds by 4 points at 12:59 PM, highlighting increasing skepticism surrounding his campaign.
Fujimori’s strong showing has effectively eliminated any bets placed on her finishing third in this election cycle, thus bringing into question the viability of those positions. Her advancement enhances the probability of her winning the presidency, while López Aliaga's pathway appears increasingly narrow. Buying YES at 16.5¢ requires a significant turnaround, necessitating an unexpected shift in remaining vote counts or potential legal actions that might favor him.
It is vital for traders and investors to keep an eye on forthcoming ONPE updates or any legal maneuvers from López Aliaga's team, as these factors could reshape the candidates in play ahead of the pivotal June 7 decision.