The New Geography of Natural Gas

By Kirsteen Mackay

4 min read

The regions that consume the most gas are not the ones producing it, and the geopolitical fractures of recent years have made that imbalance harder to manage.

Charted: World Gas Supply and Demand

Sponsored by: CanCambria Energy. European gas supply remains constrained, with pricing consistently above North American benchmarks. CanCambria is targeting this gap with a large-scale tight gas project in southern Hungary. Access our Exclusive Investor Report on CanCambria Energy.

For most of the twentieth century, the geography of natural gas was relatively predictable. The countries that sat on the largest reserves, such as Russia, Iran, and Qatar, held structural leverage over the countries that needed the fuel to run their economies, and pipelines were built to reflect that dependency.

That geography is being redrawn. Russia's invasion of Ukraine, a decade of underinvestment in European domestic production, and the rapid scaling of North American LNG export capacity have produced a global gas market that looks fundamentally different from the one that existed just a few years ago. The data below sets out who produced and consumed gas in 20241, alongside 2025 production estimates2, and the regional balances that result. Which routes can move that surplus gas to regions that need it is now a central question in global energy policy.

#Natural gas production and consumption by region

All figures in bcm.

Region

Production 2024

Production 2025 (est.)

Consumption 2024

2024 balance

North America

1,263

1,362

1,131

+132 surplus

Middle East & Africa

978

997

771

+208 surplus

Asia Pacific

708

745

973

-265 deficit

Russia & CIS

813

843

616

+197 surplus

Europe

198

198

469

-271 deficit

Latin America

165

197

169

-4 deficit

Sources: Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy 2025 (2024 data)1; OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin 2026 (2025 estimates)2. Production excludes gas flared or recycled.

#Five Things Investors Should Know

  • Europe runs the world's largest regional shortfall, producing around 198 bcm (billion cubic meters, the standard unit for gas volumes) in 2024 while consuming close to 469 bcm1. The 2025 estimates show European production flat, so the gap persists2.

  • The EU has committed to phasing out Russian LNG from January 2027 and Russian pipeline gas by autumn 20273, which makes filling Europe's deficit more politically constrained and increasingly exposed to LNG market pricing.

  • Asia Pacific is the largest demand center in the world, consuming 973 bcm in 2024 against production of 708 bcm. Europe and Asia compete for the same pool of global LNG supply, so a cold winter or supply outage in one region bids up prices in both.

  • North America's surplus widened further in 2025 as US shale output expanded, and the infrastructure to move gas to European and Asian buyers already exists. Russia and CIS held a larger nominal surplus in 2024, but most of it has no viable route to premium-priced markets.

  • For investors, the significant point is that this geography is slow to reverse. Pipeline infrastructure takes decades to build and political relationships take years to rebuild, which makes the data a lens for judging which producing regions are structurally advantaged over a multi-year horizon rather than a short-term trade.

#Why Existing Surplus Regions Cannot Fill the Gap Alone

LNG has absorbed much of the adjustment since 2022. US exports surged as new terminal capacity came online, and European buyers paid the premium required to pull cargoes away from competing Asian demand. But LNG depends on liquefaction at the export end, regasification at the import end, and a global supply pool large enough to service two major deficit regions simultaneously. Recent disruptions to Qatari LNG flows illustrated how quickly those conditions can fail to hold4.

The Middle East and Africa hold the second largest surplus in the data, yet converting it into deliverable supply requires LNG capacity that is capital-intensive, slow to permit, and concentrated in a small number of terminals.

That leaves North America, with growing output, private-sector discipline, and export infrastructure that already works, as the region with the clearest structural advantage among exporters. Yet every molecule of imported supply carries a cost floor set by liquefaction and shipping, which means the other structurally advantaged position belongs to producers operating inside the deficit region itself.

#Producing Inside the Deficit

CanCambria Energy Corp (TSXV: CCEC) (OTCQB: CCEYF) (FSE: 4JH) is advancing its 100%-owned Kiskunhalas tight gas project in southern Hungary. The project is positioned in a European gas market where prices have historically exceeded those in North America, while domestic production meets only around 20% of Hungary's gas demand5. An independently evaluated 2C contingent resource in the Pannonian Basin underpins the project, supported by historical wells, modern seismic, and legacy production data6.

In June 2026, the company announced that technical due diligence had been completed by prospective strategic partners and that commercial negotiations are underway, marking meaningful progress in the joint venture process led by Raiffeisen Bank International7. The farmout targets up to a 50% interest in the Kiskunhalas license to fund an initial drilling program. Subject to completion of the JV process, the company anticipates drilling could commence in Q1 2027, with first gas production targeted for mid-2027. Independent consultancy CHPE assigned a risked NPV10 of approximately US$1.76 billion to the Phase 1 development, based on a January 2025 price forecast and subject to execution, pricing, and cost assumptions6.

"Europe is probably the most attractive market anywhere in the world for E&P companies to operate." — Dr. Paul Clarke, CEO and President8

In a recent interview with ValueTheMarkets, Clarke also walked through the single-well economics, the JV timeline, and the 12 to 18 month milestone roadmap in detail.

CanCambria is a pre-revenue company at an early stage of development. Investors should weigh the potential scale against the material risks of a company that has not yet established commercial production and remains dependent on securing joint venture funding.

#Global Gas's New Frontiers

The geography of global gas supply has shifted in ways that are structural rather than cyclical. The regions that need the most gas are becoming less able to source it cheaply from where they historically sourced it, and how that tension resolves over the coming decade may well be shaped by investment decisions being made right now, in basins most investors have never heard of.

Investor Report
Discover the CanCambria Energy Story

Important Notice And Disclaimer

PAID ADVERTISEMENT

This communication is a paid advertisement. ValueTheMarkets is a trading name of Digitonic Ltd, and its owners, directors, officers, employees, affiliates, agents and assigns (collectively the “Publisher”) is often paid by one or more of the profiled companies or a third party to disseminate these types of communications. In this case, the Publisher has been compensated by CanCambria Energy Corp to conduct investor awareness advertising and marketing and has paid the Publisher the equivalent of thirty thousand US dollars starting April 12th, 2026 to July 11th, 2026 to produce and disseminate this and other similar articles and certain related banner advertisements. This compensation should be viewed as a major conflict with the Publisher’s ability to provide unbiased information or opinion.

CHANGES IN SHARE TRADING AND PRICE

Readers should beware that third parties, profiled companies, and/or their affiliates may liquidate shares of the profiled companies at any time, including at or near the time you receive this communication, which has the potential to adversely affect share prices. Frequently, companies profiled in our articles experience a large increase in share trading volume and share price during the course of investor awareness marketing, which often ends as soon as the investor awareness marketing ceases. The investor awareness marketing may be as brief as one day, after which a large decrease in share trading volume and share price may likely occur.

NO OFFER TO SELL OR BUY SECURITIES

This communication is not, and should not be construed to be, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

INFORMATION

Neither this communication nor the Publisher purport to provide a complete analysis of any company or its financial position. This communication is based on information that is publicly available and on information provided by the company or its authorised representatives. It does not contain any material, non-public information. While the information contained in these materials is believed to be accurate and reliable, the Company, its affiliates, nor their respective members, owners, partners, principals, managers, employees, agents or representatives makes any warranty or representation, whether express or implied, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in these materials. Certain information contained herein is based on data provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed and should not be relied upon as such. The financial information contained herein has not been audited and is not necessarily indicative of future results. Further, the Publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information. The information in this communication is not updated after publication and may become inaccurate or outdated. Any statements made should not be taken as an endorsement of analyst views.

NO FINANCIAL ADVICE

The Publisher is not, and does not purport to be, a broker-dealer or registered investment adviser or a financial adviser. The Publisher has no access to non-public information about publicly traded companies. The information provided is general and impersonal, and is not tailored to any particular individual’s financial situation or investment objective(s) and this communication is not, and should not be construed to be, personalized investment advice directed to or appropriate for any particular investor or a personal recommendation to deal or invest in any particular company or product. Any investment should be made only after consulting a professional investment advisor and only after reviewing the financial statements and other pertinent corporate information about the company. Further, readers are advised to read and carefully consider the Risk Factors identified and discussed in the advertised company’s SEC, SEDAR+ and/or other government filings. Investing in securities, particularly microcap securities, is speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS

This communication contains forward-looking statements, including statements regarding expected continual growth of the featured companies and/or industry. Statements in this communication that look forward in time, which include everything other than historical information, are based on assumptions and estimates by our content providers and involve risks and uncertainties that may affect the profiled company’s actual results of operations. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and undue reliance should not be placed on them. These statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other important factors that could cause the actual results and performance to differ materially from any future results or performance expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, among others: the success of the profiled company’s operations; the size and growth of the market for the company’s products and services; the company’s ability to fund its capital requirements in the near term and long term; pricing pressures; changes in business strategy, practices or customer relationships; general worldwide economic and business conditions; currency exchange and interest rate fluctuations; government, statutory, regulatory or administrative initiatives affecting the company’s business. The Company nor the Publisher undertakes any obligation to update forward-looking statements if circumstances or estimates or opinions should change.

INDEMNIFICATION/RELEASE OF LIABILITY

By reading this communication, you acknowledge that you have read and understand this disclaimer in full, and agree and accept that the Publisher and the Company provide no warranty in respect of the communication or the profiled company and accepts no liability whatsoever. You acknowledge and accept this disclaimer and that, to the greatest extent permitted under applicable law, you release and hold harmless the Publisher and the Company from any and all liability, damages, injury and adverse consequences arising from your use of this communication. You further agree that you are solely responsible for any financial outcome related to or arising from your investment decisions.

TERMS OF USE AND DISCLAIMER

By reading this communication you agree that you have reviewed and fully agree to the Terms of Use found here https://www.valuethemarkets.com/terms-conditions/ and acknowledge that you have reviewed the Disclaimer found here https://www.valuethemarkets.com/disclaimer/. If you do not agree to the Terms of Use, please contact valuethemarkets.com to discontinue receiving future communications.

INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY

All trademarks used in this communication are the property of their respective trademark holders. Other than valuethemarkets.com, the Publisher is not affiliated, connected, or associated with, and the communication is not sponsored, approved, or originated by, the trademark holders unless otherwise stated. No claim is made by the Publisher to any rights in any third-party trademarks other than valuethemarkets.com.

AUTHORS: VALUETHEMARKETS

valuethemarkets.com and Digitonic Ltd and our affiliates are not responsible for the content or accuracy of this article. The information included in this article is based solely on information provided by the company or companies mentioned above. This article does not provide any financial advice and is not a recommendation to deal in any securities or product. News and research are not recommendations to invest in the Company, and investments may fall in value so that you could lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. ValueTheMarkets does not hold any position in the stock(s) and/or financial instrument(s) mentioned in the above piece. ValueTheMarkets have been paid to produce this piece by the company or companies mentioned above. Digitonic Ltd, the owner of valuethemarkets.com, has been paid for the production of this piece by the company or companies mentioned above.